Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto; Stocker, Thomas F. (2011). Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system. Energy policy, 39(1), pp. 334-348. Amsterdam: Elsevier 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.002

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Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

UniBE Contributor:

Stocker, Thomas

ISSN:

0301-4215

Publisher:

Elsevier

Language:

English

Submitter:

Factscience Import

Date Deposited:

04 Oct 2013 14:28

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 14:08

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.002

Web of Science ID:

000285492000029

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/10212

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/10212 (FactScience: 216066)

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