Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

Muthers, Stefan; Anet, J. G.; Raible, Christoph; Brönnimann, Stefan; Rozanov, E.; Arfeuille, Florian Xavier; Peter, T.; Shapiro, A. I.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.; Brugnara, Yuri; Schmutz, W. (2014). Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(3), pp. 1340-1355. American Geophysical Union 10.1002/2013JD020138

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An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

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