Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009

Calle, Leonardo; Canadell, Josep G; Patra, Prabir; Ciais, Philippe; Ichii, Kazuhito; Tian, Hanqin; Kondo, Masayuki; Piao, Shilong; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna B; Ito, Akihiko; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charlie; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin David; Vivoy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke; Poulter, Benjamin (2016). Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), 074011. IOP Publishing 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074011

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We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA 2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and South Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%–40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%–25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg C yr⁻¹, whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of −0.17 Pg C yr⁻¹. Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990–2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.

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