Gamma, Alex; Schleifer, Roman; Weinmann, Wolfgang; Buadze, Anna; Liebrenz, Michael (2016). Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. PLoS ONE, 11(11), e0166566. Public Library of Science 10.1371/journal.pone.0166566
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OBJECTIVE
To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug.
METHODS
Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed.
RESULTS
On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6.
CONCLUSIONS
These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
|---|---|
Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Service Sector > Institute of Legal Medicine > Forensic Psychiatric Services 04 Faculty of Medicine > Service Sector > Institute of Legal Medicine > Forensic Chemistry and Toxicology 04 Faculty of Medicine > Service Sector > Institute of Legal Medicine |
UniBE Contributor: |
Schleifer, Roman, Weinmann, Wolfgang, Liebrenz, Michael |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health |
ISSN: |
1932-6203 |
Publisher: |
Public Library of Science |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Antoinette Angehrn |
Date Deposited: |
27 Dec 2016 16:46 |
Last Modified: |
05 Dec 2022 15:00 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1371/journal.pone.0166566 |
PubMed ID: |
27902717 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.7892/boris.91155 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/91155 |
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