Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

Gaslikova, L.; Schwerzmann, A.; Raible, Christoph C.; Stocker, Thomas F. (2011). Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(4), pp. 1205-1216. Göttingen: Copernicus Publications 10.5194/nhess-11-1205-2011

Preview

Text nhess-11-1205-2011.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (1MB) | Preview

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Interest & Impact

Downloads

287 since deposited on 04 Oct 2013
18 in the past 12 months

Citations

5 Citations in Web of Science ®
6 Citations in Scopus

Search

in Google Scholar™

Services

Actions (login required)

Edit item

Actions (login required)

Edit item