Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

Gaslikova, L.; Schwerzmann, A.; Raible, Christoph C.; Stocker, Thomas F. (2011). Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(4), pp. 1205-1216. Göttingen: Copernicus Publications 10.5194/nhess-11-1205-2011

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The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics

UniBE Contributor:

Raible, Christoph and Stocker, Thomas

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics

ISSN:

1561-8633

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications

Language:

English

Submitter:

Factscience Import

Date Deposited:

04 Oct 2013 14:28

Last Modified:

01 Sep 2015 10:25

Publisher DOI:

10.5194/nhess-11-1205-2011

Web of Science ID:

000290015200019

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.10208

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/10208 (FactScience: 216060)

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