Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions

Williams, Richard G.; Roussenov, Vassil; Frölicher, Thomas; Goodwin, Philip (2017). Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(20), 10,633-10,642. American Geophysical Union 10.1002/2017GL075080

Preview

Text Williams_et_al-2017-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (1MB) | Preview

The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1,000 year integration of an Earth system model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO₂ being taken up by the ocean and land.

Interest & Impact

Downloads

171 since deposited on 19 Apr 2018
23 in the past 12 months

Citations

5 Citations in Web of Science ®
6 Citations in Scopus

Search

in Google Scholar™

Services

Actions (login required)

Edit item

Actions (login required)

Edit item