Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions

Williams, Richard G.; Roussenov, Vassil; Frölicher, Thomas; Goodwin, Philip (2017). Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(20), 10,633-10,642. American Geophysical Union 10.1002/2017GL075080

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The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1,000 year integration of an Earth system model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO₂ being taken up by the ocean and land.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

UniBE Contributor:

Frölicher, Thomas

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics

ISSN:

0094-8276

Publisher:

American Geophysical Union

Language:

English

Submitter:

Monika Wälti-Stampfli

Date Deposited:

19 Apr 2018 13:01

Last Modified:

19 Apr 2018 13:01

Publisher DOI:

10.1002/2017GL075080

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.112658

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/112658

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