Simulations of the population of Centaurs – I. The bulk statistics

Horner, J.; Evans, N. W.; Bailey, M. E. (2004). Simulations of the population of Centaurs – I. The bulk statistics. Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 354(3), pp. 798-810. Blackwell Publishing Ltd 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2004.08240.x

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Large-scale simulations of the Centaur population are carried out. The evolution of 23328 particles based on the orbits of 32 well-known Centaurs is followed for up to 3 Myr in the forward and backward direction under the influence of the four massive planets. The objects exhibit a rich variety of dynamical behaviour with half-lives ranging from 540 kyr (1996AR20) to 32 Myr (2000FZ53). The mean half-life of the entire sample of Centaurs is 2.7 Myr. The data are analysed using a classification scheme based on the controlling planets at perihelion and aphelion, previously given in Horner et al. Transfer probabilities are computed and show the main dynamical pathways of the Centaur population. The total number of Centaurs with diameters larger than 1 km is estimated as ∼44300, assuming an inward flux of one new short-period comet every 200 yr. The flux into the Centaur region from the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt is estimated to be one new object every 125 yr. Finally, the flux from the Centaur region to Earth-crossing orbits is one new Earth-crosser every 880 yr.

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