Quantifying Confidence

Angeletos, George-Marios; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris (2018). Quantifying Confidence. Econometrica, 86(5), pp. 1689-1726. The Econometric Society 10.3982/ECTA13079

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We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher‐order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the short‐term economic outlook rather than the medium‐ to long‐run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; it accounts for a significant fraction of the business‐cycle volatility in estimated models that allow for various competing structural shocks; and it captures a type of fluctuations that have a Keynesian flavor but do not rely on nominal rigidities.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics

UniBE Contributor:

Collard, Fabrice and Dellas, Harris

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

ISSN:

0012-9682

Publisher:

The Econometric Society

Language:

English

Submitter:

Dino Collalti

Date Deposited:

01 May 2019 08:14

Last Modified:

12 Nov 2019 15:48

Publisher DOI:

10.3982/ECTA13079

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.127510

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/127510

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