Consistency of Extreme Flood Estimation Approaches

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas Paul; Weingartner, Rolf (2019). Consistency of Extreme Flood Estimation Approaches. Journal of hydrologic engineering, 24(7), 04019018. American Society of Civil Engineers 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001797

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Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used to plan infrastructure and to determine the dimensions of flood protection measures. Several well-established methods exist for estimating low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve because the “true value” of an extreme flood is not observable. A detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In the present study, the following three methods of estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical method (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical method based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic method (physically based estimation of the probable maximum flood, PMF). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments; the results show that the 10,000-year return level flood estimations exceed the PMF estimations by 3% and 18%. The analysis shows that the plausibility of an extreme flood estimation does not only depend on the applied method but also on its ability to represent flood-triggering processes, including precipitation input, spatio-temporal precipitation distribution, and runoff.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Hydrology
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas Paul and Weingartner, Rolf

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

1084-0699

Publisher:

American Society of Civil Engineers

Projects:

[245] Mobiliar Lab für Naturrisiken Official URL

Language:

English

Submitter:

Hélène Christine Louise Barras

Date Deposited:

02 Jul 2019 08:01

Last Modified:

07 Jul 2019 02:38

Publisher DOI:

10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001797

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Extreme floods; Flood frequency analysis (FFA); Probable maximumflood (PMF); Flood frequency;Method consistency.

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.130403

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/130403

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