Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas

Fuchs, Sven; Heiser, Micha; Schlögl, Matthias; Zischg, Andreas Paul; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Keiler, Margreth (2019). Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas. Environmental modelling & software, 117, pp. 176-180. Elsevier 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.026

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Because effects of climate change and an increase in elements at risk, mountain hazard loss increased throughout Europe. Yet, factors influencing loss, i.e. vulnerability, have gained less attention to date. Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss resulting from the hazard impact on buildings. Recent studies have focused on evaluating vulnerability to dynamic flooding using proxies from case studies and based on empirical ex-post approaches. However, the transferability to other case studies and, therefore, the ability of such models to actually predict future losses is limited. To overcome this gap, we present a beta model based on loss data from the European Alps, which clearly shows that a single vulnerability function is sufficient to predict losses resulting from different types of torrential hazards and to provide probabilities of destruction under specific scenarios. As a result, the curves are transferable and may significantly increase the predictive power of risk analyses.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Hydrology
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Geomorphology
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Zischg, Andreas Paul and Keiler, Margreth

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

1364-8152

Publisher:

Elsevier

Projects:

[245] Mobiliar Lab für Naturrisiken Official URL

Language:

English

Submitter:

Hélène Christine Louise Barras

Date Deposited:

22 May 2019 09:25

Last Modified:

22 May 2019 09:25

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.026

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Vulnerability, Elements at risk, Torrential hazards, Loss, Zero-and-one inflated beta Regression, Austria

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.130405

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/130405

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