Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study.

Rushton, Alison B; Verra, Martin L; Emms, Andrew; Heneghan, Nicola R; Falla, Deborah; Reddington, Michael; Cole, Ashley A; Willems, Paul; Benneker, Lorin Michael; Selvey, David; Hutton, Michael; Heymans, Martijn W; Staal, J Bart (2018). Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study. BMJ open, 8(5), e021078. BMJ Publishing Group 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-021078

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INTRODUCTION Potential predictors of poor outcome will be measured at baseline: (1) preoperatively to develop a clinical prediction model to predict which patients are likely to have favourable outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) and (2) postoperatively to predict which patients are likely to have favourable long-term outcomes (to inform rehabilitation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS Prospective observational study with a defined episode inception of the point of surgery. Electronic data will be collected through the British Spine Registry and will include patient-reported outcome measures (eg, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire) and data items (eg, smoking status). Consecutive patients (≥18 years) undergoing LSFS for back and/or leg pain of degenerative cause will be recruited. EXCLUSION CRITERIA LSFS for spinal fracture, inflammatory disease, malignancy, infection, deformity and revision surgery. 1000 participants will be recruited (n=600 prediction model development, n=400 internal validation derived model; planning 10 events per candidate prognostic factor). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome (disability and pain) at 6 weeks (objective 1) and 12 months postsurgery (objective 2). Disability and pain will be measured using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and severity of pain in the previous week with a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS 0-10), respectively. Good outcome is defined as a change of 1.7 on the NRS for pain, and a change of 14.3 on the ODI. Both linear and logistic (to dichotomise outcome into low and high risk) multivariable regression models will be fitted and mean differences or ORs for each candidate predictive factor reported. Internal validation of the derived model will use a further set of British Spine Registry data. External validation will be geographical using two spinal registries in The Netherlands and Switzerland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval (University of Birmingham ERN_17-0446A). Dissemination through peer-reviewed journals and conferences.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Further Contribution)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Orthopaedic, Plastic and Hand Surgery (DOPH) > Clinic of Orthopaedic Surgery

UniBE Contributor:

Benneker, Lorin Michael

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health

ISSN:

2044-6055

Publisher:

BMJ Publishing Group

Language:

English

Submitter:

Kathrin Aeschlimann

Date Deposited:

27 Jun 2019 13:11

Last Modified:

22 Oct 2019 17:10

Publisher DOI:

10.1136/bmjopen-2017-021078

PubMed ID:

29789351

Uncontrolled Keywords:

back pain clinical prediction model lumbar spinal fusion rehabilitation medicine

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.131541

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/131541

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