#VOTING IN THE RAIN
#
##########################################


setwd("H:/Writing/2017 Weather/Conjoint/NEU (Marlène)")
setwd("N:/IS_MAR/Voting in the rain/TEXT/Local Government Studies/R2")
setwd("C:/Users/stadelmann/Desktop/R2")


if (!require("pacman", quietly=T)) install.packages("pacman")
#### Setup
pacman::p_load('dplyr','tidyr','cjoint', 
               'gsubfn','base', 'stringi', 'lme4')

load("cj_VotingRain.RData")


# Define Baseline
cjLGGLAttr <- list()
cjLGGLAttr$Agenda <- "Local public transport"
cjLGGLAttr$Costs <- "Some savings"
cjLGGLAttr$Outcome <- "Own position probably wins"
cjLGGLAttr$Company <- "No company"
cjLGGLAttr$Weather <- "Cloudy"

### LMER (without controls)
results.PART.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Agenda + Costs + Outcome + 
    Company + Weather,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  respondent.id = "id",
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

results.PART <- plot(results.PART.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                     xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate")


# extract data from figure for further refining
results.PART.d <- results.PART$data
results.PART.d$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.d), 1)

p.cj.general <- ggplot(results.PART.d) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x)),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-6,5) + coord_flip() + 
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde", 
       y="Change in Probability to attend", 
       x="") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.cj.general

ggsave("fig2.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=7, height=4)
ggsave("fig2.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=7, height=4)


#Participation rate (not shown in the paper)
########################
cjLGGL4$concat <- paste(cjLGGL4$Haupttraktandum,cjLGGL4$Kosten,
                        cjLGGL4$Abstimmungsausgang,cjLGGL4$Begleitung,
                        cjLGGL4$Wetter,sep="_")

cjLGGL4$particip01 <- 0
cjLGGL4$particip01[cjLGGL4$particip>95] <- 1
table(cjLGGL4$particip01)

Participation <- cjLGGL4 %>% 
  group_by(concat) %>% 
  summarise(mean=mean(particip)) 

ggplot(
  Participation,aes(mean)) + 
  geom_density(fill="grey80") + 
  geom_vline(aes(xintercept=0.5), color="grey30", linetype=5) +
  scale_linetype_manual(values=c(1,2)) +
  labs(title="Likelihood to participate in the Landsgemeinde",
       x="Mean probability per scenario",
       y="Density") + 
  theme_minimal() + 
  theme(legend.position="none")

ggsave("meanparticipation.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=9, height=5)
ggsave("meanparticipation.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=9, height=5)


### LMER with interaction between factors

#FIGURE 3

## Voice one's opinion

table(cjLGGL4$opinion)

cjLGGL4$opinion_d[cjLGGL4$opinion==1] <- 0
cjLGGL4$opinion_d[cjLGGL4$opinion==2] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$opinion_d[cjLGGL4$opinion==3] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$opinion_d[cjLGGL4$opinion==4] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$opinion_d[cjLGGL4$opinion==5] <- 1 

cjLGGL4$opinion_d <- as.factor(cjLGGL4$opinion_d)


results.PART.opinion.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Agenda:opinion_d + Costs:opinion_d + Outcome:opinion_d + 
    Company:opinion_d + Weather:opinion_d,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  respondent.id = "id",
  respondent.varying = "opinion_d",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

summary(results.PART.opinion.engl)
results.PART.opinion.engl$cond.estimates

results.PART.opinion.engl <- plot(results.PART.opinion.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                                  plot.display = "interaction", xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate")

#Extract results
results.PART.opinion <- results.PART.opinion.engl$data
results.PART.opinion$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.opinion), 1)
results.PART.opinion$x2 <- seq(1,(nrow(results.PART.opinion))/2, 1)

results.PART.opinion$facet <- recode_factor(results.PART.opinion$facet, 
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 0' = "Meeting opinion less important",
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 1' = "Meeting opinion important"
)


p.opinion <- ggplot(results.PART.opinion) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x), color=facet, 
                      shape=facet),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-8,5) + coord_flip() + 
  facet_grid(~facet) +
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde to voice ones opinion", 
       y="Change in probability to attend", 
       x="", 
       color="Voice ones opinion",
       shape="Voice ones opinion") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette="Set1") + 
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.opinion

ggsave("fig3_1.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4.5)
ggsave("fig3_1.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4.5)

##Close race

table(cjLGGL4$Outcome)

cjLGGL4$Close[cjLGGL4$Outcome=="Close race"] <- 0
cjLGGL4$Close[cjLGGL4$Outcome=="Own position probably wins"] <- 1
cjLGGL4$Close[cjLGGL4$Outcome=="Own position probably loses"] <- 2


cjLGGL4$Close <- as.factor(cjLGGL4$Close)



results.PART.close.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Close:Agenda + Close:Costs +
    Close:Company + Close:Weather,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  respondent.id = "id",
  respondent.varying = "Close",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

summary(results.PART.close.engl)
results.PART.close.engl$cond.estimates


results.PART.close.engl <- plot(results.PART.close.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                                xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate", plot.display = "interaction")


# save the plot data
results.PART.close.d <- results.PART.close.engl$data
results.PART.close.d$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.close.d), 1)
results.PART.close.d$x2 <- seq(1,(nrow(results.PART.close.d))/3, 1)

results.PART.close.d$facet <- recode_factor(results.PART.close.d$facet, 
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 0' = "Close",
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 1' = "Probably winning",
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 2' = "Probably losing"
                                            
)


p.close <- ggplot(results.PART.close.d) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x), color=facet, 
                      shape=facet),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-6.5,6) + coord_flip() + 
  facet_grid(~facet) +
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde by closeness of decisions", 
       y="Change in probability to attend", 
       x="", 
       color="Closeness of decisions",
       shape="Closeness of decisions") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette="Set1") + 
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.close

ggsave("fig3_2.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4)
ggsave("fig3_2.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4)


#FIGURE 4

##Landsmgeinde as tradition

table(cjLGGL4$Tradition)

cjLGGL4$Tradition_d[cjLGGL4$Tradition==1] <- 0
cjLGGL4$Tradition_d[cjLGGL4$Tradition==2] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$Tradition_d[cjLGGL4$Tradition==3] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$Tradition_d[cjLGGL4$Tradition==4] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$Tradition_d[cjLGGL4$Tradition==5] <- 1 

cjLGGL4$Tradition_d <- as.factor(cjLGGL4$Tradition_d)


results.PART.tradition.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Agenda:Tradition_d + Costs:Tradition_d + Outcome:Tradition_d + 
    Company:Tradition_d + Weather:Tradition_d,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  respondent.id = "id",
  respondent.varying = "Tradition_d",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

summary(results.PART.tradition.engl)
results.PART.tradition.engl$cond.estimates

results.PART.tradition <- plot(results.PART.tradition.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                               plot.display = "interaction", xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate")

# save the plot data
results.PART.trad <- results.PART.tradition$data
results.PART.trad$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.trad), 1)
results.PART.trad$x2 <- seq(1,(nrow(results.PART.trad))/2, 1)

results.PART.trad$facet <- recode_factor(results.PART.trad$facet, 
                                         'Conditional on\nClose = 0' = "Tradition less important",
                                         'Conditional on\nClose = 1' = "Tradition important"
)


p.tradition <- ggplot(results.PART.trad) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x), color=facet, 
                      shape=facet),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-8,5.5) + coord_flip() + 
  facet_grid(~facet) +
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde by tradition", 
       y="Change in probability to attend", 
       x="", 
       color="Landsgemeinde as tradition",
       shape="Landsgemeinde as tradition") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette="Set1") + 
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.tradition

ggsave("fig4_1.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4)
ggsave("fig4_1.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4.5)


##Friends

table(cjLGGL4$Friends)

cjLGGL4$Friends_d[cjLGGL4$Friends==1] <- 0
cjLGGL4$Friends_d[cjLGGL4$Friends==2] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$Friends_d[cjLGGL4$Friends==3] <- 0 
cjLGGL4$Friends_d[cjLGGL4$Friends==4] <- 0
cjLGGL4$Friends_d[cjLGGL4$Friends==5] <- 1 

cjLGGL4$Friends_d <- as.factor(cjLGGL4$Friends_d)


results.PART.friends.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Agenda:Friends_d + Costs:Friends_d + Outcome:Friends_d + 
    Company:Friends_d + Weather:Friends_d,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  respondent.id = "id",
  respondent.varying = "Friends_d",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

summary(results.PART.friends.engl)
results.PART.friends.engl$cond.estimates

results.PART.friends.engl <- plot(results.PART.friends.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                                  plot.display = "interaction", xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate")

#Extract results
results.PART.friends <- results.PART.friends.engl$data
results.PART.friends$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.friends), 1)
results.PART.friends$x2 <- seq(1,(nrow(results.PART.friends))/2, 1)

results.PART.friends$facet <- recode_factor(results.PART.friends$facet, 
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 0' = "Meeting friends less important",
                                            'Conditional on\nClose = 1' = "Meeting friends important"
)


p.friends <- ggplot(results.PART.friends) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x), color=facet, 
                      shape=facet),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-11,8) + coord_flip() + 
  facet_grid(~facet) +
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde to meet acquiantances", 
       y="Change in probability to attend", 
       x="", 
       color="Important to meet acquiantances",
       shape="Important to meet acquiantances") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette="Set1") + 
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.friends

ggsave("fig4_2.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4.5)
ggsave("fig4_2.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4.5)


## Company
table(cjLGGL4$Company)

results.PART.company.engl <- amce.lmer(
  formula = particip ~
    Company:Agenda + Company:Costs +
    Company:Outcome + Company:Weather,
  hierarchy = "(1 | id)",
  respondent.id = "id",
  respondent.varying = "Company",
  baselines = cjLGGLAttr,
  data = cjLGGL4,
  na.ignore=T
)

summary(results.PART.company.engl)
results.PART.company.engl$cond.estimates

results.PART.company.engl <- plot(results.PART.company.engl, main = "Attending the Landsgemeinde",
                                  xlab = "Change in the propensity to participate", plot.display = "interaction")


# save the plot data
results.PART.company.d <- results.PART.company.engl$data
results.PART.company.d$x <- seq(1,nrow(results.PART.company.d), 1)
results.PART.company.d$x2 <- seq(1,(nrow(results.PART.company.d))/5, 1)

results.PART.company.d$facet <- recode_factor(results.PART.company.d$facet, 
                                              'Conditional on\nCompany = No company' = "No company",
                                              'Conditional on\nCompany = Workmates' = "Workmates",
                                              'Conditional on\nCompany = Family' = "Family", 
                                              'Conditional on\nCompany = Neighbours' = "Neighbours",
                                              'Conditional on\nCompany = Friends' = "Friends"
)


p.close <- ggplot(results.PART.company.d) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, size = 0.5, colour = "black", 
             linetype = "dotted") +
  geom_pointrange(aes(y = pe, ymin = lower, ymax = upper,
                      x = reorder(var, -x), color=facet, 
                      shape=facet),
                  size=0.4,
                  position=position_dodge(width=0.95)) +
  ylim(-8,6) + coord_flip() + 
  facet_grid(~facet) +
  labs(title="Attending the Landsgemeinde by type of company", 
       y="Change in probability to attend", 
       x="", 
       color="Company",
       shape="Company") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette="Set1") + 
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(hjust = 0), 
        axis.title.x=element_text(size=11), 
        legend.position="bottom")
p.close

ggsave("fig4_3.eps",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4)
ggsave("fig4_3.png",
       dpi=300,
       units=c("in"),
       width=8, height=4)