Simulation Validation from a Bayesian Perspective

Beisbart, Claus (2019). Simulation Validation from a Bayesian Perspective. In: Beisbart, Claus; Saam, Nicole J. (eds.) Computer Simulation Validation. Fundamental Concepts, Methodological Frameworks, and Philosophical Perspectives. Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications (pp. 173-201). Cham: Springer 10.1007/978-3-319-70766-2_7

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Bayesian epistemology offers a powerful framework for characterizing scientific inference. Its basic idea is that rational belief comes in degrees that can be measured in terms of probabilities. The axioms of the probability calculus and a rule for updating (e.g., Bayesian conditionalization) emerge as constraints on the formation of rational belief. Bayesian epistemology has led to useful explications of notions such as confirmation. It thus is natural to ask whether Bayesian epistemology offers a useful framework for thinking about the inferences implicit in the validation of computer simulations. The aim of this chapter is to answer this question. Bayesian epistemology is briefly summarized and then applied to validation. Updating is shown to form a viable method for data-driven validation. Bayesians can also express how a simulation obtains prior credibility because the underlying conceptual model is credible. But the impact of this prior credibility is indirect since simulations at best provide partial and approximate solutions to the conceptual model. Fortunately, this gap between the simulations and the conceptual model can be addressed using what we call Bayesian verification. The final part of the chapter systematically evaluates the use of Bayesian epistemology in validation, e.g., by comparing it to a falsificationist approach. It is argued that Bayesian epistemology goes beyond mere calibration and that it can provide the foundations for a sound evaluation of computer simulations.

Item Type:

Book Section (Book Chapter)

Division/Institute:

06 Faculty of Humanities > Department of Art and Cultural Studies > Institute of Philosophy
06 Faculty of Humanities > Department of Art and Cultural Studies > Institute of Philosophy > Theoretical Philosophy
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
10 Strategic Research Centers > Center for Space and Habitability (CSH)

UniBE Contributor:

Beisbart, Claus

Subjects:

000 Computer science, knowledge & systems
100 Philosophy
100 Philosophy > 120 Epistemology

ISSN:

2195-2817

ISBN:

978-3-319-70766-2

Series:

Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications

Publisher:

Springer

Language:

English

Submitter:

Claus Beisbart

Date Deposited:

28 Apr 2020 09:42

Last Modified:

28 Apr 2020 09:50

Publisher DOI:

10.1007/978-3-319-70766-2_7

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Degree of belief · Bayesian updating · Problem of old evidence · Error · Uncertainty · Confirmation · Verification

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.143707

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/143707

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