Expectations, Vote Choice, and Opinion Stability Since the 2016 Brexit Referendum

Grynberg, Charlotte; Walter, Stefanie; Wasserfallen, Fabio (2020). Expectations, Vote Choice, and Opinion Stability Since the 2016 Brexit Referendum. European Union politics, 21(2), pp. 255-275. Sage Publications 10.1177/1465116519892328

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A surprising development in the post-referendum Brexit process has been that vote intentions have remained largely stable, despite the cumbersome withdrawal negotia- tions. We examine this puzzle by analyzing the role of voters’ expectations about the European Union’s willingness to accommodate the UK after the pro-Brexit vote. Using data from the British Election Study, we explore how these expectations are updated over time, and how they are related to vote intentions. We find that voters who were more optimistic about the European Union’s response were more likely to vote Leave. Over the course of the negotiations, Leavers have become more disillu- sioned. These adjustments, however, have not translated into shifts in vote intentions. Overall, we find evidence that motivated reasoning is an important driver of public opinion on Brexit.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Social Sciences > Institute of Political Science

UniBE Contributor:

Wasserfallen, Fabio Adriano

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 320 Political science

ISSN:

1465-1165

Publisher:

Sage Publications

Language:

English

Submitter:

Mirco Thomas Good

Date Deposited:

06 Jul 2020 10:23

Last Modified:

06 Jul 2020 10:23

Publisher DOI:

10.1177/1465116519892328

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Brexit, disintegration, expectations, motivated reasoning, referendum

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.144404

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/144404

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