La Marca, Antonio; Capuzzo, Martina; Donno, Valeria; Mignini Renzini, Mario; Del Giovane, Cinzia; D'Amico, Roberto; Sunkara, Sesh Kamal (2021). The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles. Journal of gynecology obstetrics and human reproduction, 50(3), p. 101878. Elsevier 10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878
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RESEARCH QUESTION
How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics?
DESIGN
Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.
RESULTS
Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).
CONCLUSIONS
The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
|---|---|
Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Medical Education > Institute of General Practice and Primary Care (BIHAM) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Del Giovane, Cinzia |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services |
ISSN: |
2468-7847 |
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Andrea Flükiger-Flückiger |
Date Deposited: |
11 Aug 2020 20:57 |
Last Modified: |
05 Dec 2022 15:39 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878 |
PubMed ID: |
32747217 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
IVF embryos live birth oocytes retrieved prediction model |
BORIS DOI: |
10.7892/boris.145735 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/145735 |
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