The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles.

La Marca, Antonio; Capuzzo, Martina; Donno, Valeria; Mignini Renzini, Mario; Del Giovane, Cinzia; D'Amico, Roberto; Sunkara, Sesh Kamal (2021). The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles. Journal of gynecology obstetrics and human reproduction, 50(3), p. 101878. Elsevier 10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878

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RESEARCH QUESTION

How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics?

DESIGN

Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.

RESULTS

Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Medical Education > Institute of General Practice and Primary Care (BIHAM)

UniBE Contributor:

Del Giovane, Cinzia

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

2468-7847

Publisher:

Elsevier

Language:

English

Submitter:

Andrea Flükiger-Flückiger

Date Deposited:

11 Aug 2020 20:57

Last Modified:

19 Feb 2021 14:22

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878

PubMed ID:

32747217

Uncontrolled Keywords:

IVF embryos live birth oocytes retrieved prediction model

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.145735

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/145735

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