Climate (change) and conflict: resolving a puzzle of association and causation

Almer, Christian; Boes, Stefan (April 2012). Climate (change) and conflict: resolving a puzzle of association and causation (Discussion Papers 12-03). Bern: Department of Economics

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There is an ongoing discussion especially among political scientists and economists whether and how climate variability affects civil conflicts and wars in developing countries. Given the predicted climatic changes, several studies argue that increasing temperatures or decreasing precipitation will lead to more conflicts in the future. This paper aims at linking the different strands of the literature by analyzing the causal mechanisms at work. We use short-term weather variability as well as long-term changes in Sub-Saharan Africa and find that climate (change) significantly affects agricultural output, to some extent also GDP, and has no robust direct effects on civil wars. Negative shocks in GDP, however, have the expected fostering effects on civil conflicts.

Item Type:

Working Paper

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics

UniBE Contributor:

Almer, Christian and Boes, Stefan

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

Series:

Discussion Papers

Publisher:

Department of Economics

Language:

English

Submitter:

Lars Tschannen

Date Deposited:

16 Oct 2020 17:19

Last Modified:

16 Oct 2020 17:19

JEL Classification:

D74, Q54, C36, N47

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.145755

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/145755

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