Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics: The COVID-19 Case

Della Morte, Michele; Orlando, Domenico; Sannino, Francesco (2020). Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics: The COVID-19 Case (In Press). Frontiers in physics, 8(144) Frontiers Media 10.3389/fphy.2020.00144

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We investigate the spreading dynamics of infected cases for SARS-2013 and COVID-19 epidemics for different regions of the world, in terms of the renormalization group language. The latter provides an alternative way to describe the underlying dynamics of disease spread. This allows us to introduce important quantities, for a given disease, such as the slope of the beta function at fixed points and the time scale of the epidemic spread inflection point. We discover that for COVID-19 the epidemic slope is of order one inverse week and the inflection point occurs roughly 4 weeks after the outbreak. We use these results to attempt long term estimates for the epidemic evolution in several regions of the world. The accuracy of the results vary depending on the epidemic stage for each region. We also provide a webpage where we daily update our analyses.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

10 Strategic Research Centers > Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics (AEC)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Theoretical Physics

UniBE Contributor:

Orlando, Domenico

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics

ISSN:

2296-424X

Publisher:

Frontiers Media

Language:

English

Submitter:

Esther Fiechter

Date Deposited:

11 Nov 2020 16:10

Last Modified:

11 Nov 2020 16:10

Publisher DOI:

10.3389/fphy.2020.00144

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.147947

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/147947

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