Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

Lee, Whanhee; Kim, Yoonhee; Sera, Francesco; Gasparrini, Antonio; Park, Rokjin; Michelle Choi, Hayon; Prifti, Kristi; Bell, Michelle L; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick; ... (2020). Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(11), e512-e521. Elsevier 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30222-9

[img]
Preview
Text
Lee LancetPlanetHealth 2020.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works (CC-BY-NC-ND).

Download (681kB) | Preview

BACKGROUND

Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.

METHODS

DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.

FINDINGS

The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.

INTERPRETATION

This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.

FUNDING

Korea Ministry of Environment.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

UniBE Contributor:

Vicedo Cabrera, Ana Maria

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

2542-5196

Publisher:

Elsevier

Language:

English

Submitter:

Doris Kopp Heim

Date Deposited:

10 Nov 2020 21:12

Last Modified:

10 Nov 2020 21:20

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30222-9

PubMed ID:

33159878

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.148015

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/148015

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback