Sensitivity of radiocarbon sum calibration

Hinz, Martin (2020). Sensitivity of radiocarbon sum calibration. Journal of computer applications in archaeology, 3(1), pp. 238-252. Ubiquity Press 10.5334/jcaa.53

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Sum calibration has become a standard tool for demographic studies, even though the methodology itself is far from uncontroversial. In addition to fundamental methodological criticism, questions are frequently raised about the sample size and data density required to detect large-scale changes in past populations. This article uses a simulation approach to determine the detection probabilities for events of varying intensity and with varying data density. At the same time, the effectiveness of Monte Carlo-based confidence envelopes as a countermeasure against false-positive results is tested. The results show that the detection of such events is not unlikely and that the Monte Carlo method is well suited to separate signal and noise. However, the nature of the events already observed in this way demands further assessment.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

06 Faculty of Humanities > Department of History and Archaeology > Institute of Archaeological Sciences > Pre- and Early History

UniBE Contributor:

Hinz, Martin

Subjects:

900 History > 930 History of ancient world (to ca. 499)

ISSN:

2514-8362

Publisher:

Ubiquity Press

Language:

English

Submitter:

Martin Hinz

Date Deposited:

11 Feb 2021 15:06

Last Modified:

11 Feb 2021 15:06

Publisher DOI:

10.5334/jcaa.53

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/150089

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/150089

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