Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs

Pinsky, M. L.; Rogers, L. A.; Morley, J. W.; Frölicher, T. L. (2020). Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs. Science Advances, 6(50), eabb8428. American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.1126/sciadv.abb8428

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Societies increasingly use multisector ocean planning as a tool to mitigate conflicts over space in the sea, but such plans can be highly sensitive to species redistribution driven by climate change or other factors. A key uncertainty is whether planning ahead for future species redistributions imposes high opportunity costs and sharp trade-offs against current ocean plans. Here, we use more than 10,000 projections for marine animals around North America to test the impact of climate-driven species redistributions on the ability of ocean plans to meet their goals. We show that planning for redistributions can substantially reduce exposure to risks from climate change with little additional area set aside and with few trade-offs against current ocean plan effectiveness. Networks of management areas are a key strategy. While climate change will severely disrupt many human activities, we find a strong benefit to proactively planning for long-term ocean change.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

UniBE Contributor:

Frölicher, Thomas

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

2375-2548

Publisher:

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Language:

English

Submitter:

Thomas Frölicher

Date Deposited:

06 Apr 2021 14:07

Last Modified:

29 Aug 2021 03:01

Publisher DOI:

10.1126/sciadv.abb8428

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/154103

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/154103

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