Abrupt climate change

Alley, R. B.; Marotzke, J.; Nordhaus, W. D.; Overpeck, J. T.; Peteet, D. M.; Pielke Jr., R. A.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Rhines, P. B.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Talley, L. D.; Wallace, J. M. (2003). Abrupt climate change. Science, 299(5615), pp. 2005-2010. American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.1126/science.1081056

Text alley03sci.pdf - Published Version Restricted to registered users only Available under License Publisher holds Copyright. Download (376kB)

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Interest & Impact

Downloads

1 since deposited on 19 Aug 2021
0 in the past 12 months

Citations

5 Citations in Web of Science ®
6 Citations in Scopus

Search

in Google Scholar™

Services

Actions (login required)

Edit item

Actions (login required)

Edit item