Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region

Fraedrich, Klaus; Raible, Christoph C.; Sielmann, Frank (2003). Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region. Weather and Forecasting, 18(1), pp. 3-11. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018%3C0003:AEFOTC%3E2.0.CO;2

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Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology–persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%–20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread.

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