A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries.

Sera, Francesco; Armstrong, Ben; Abbott, Sam; Meakin, Sophie; O'Reilly, Kathleen; von Borries, Rosa; Schneider, Rochelle; Royé, Dominic; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; Tobias, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Gasparrini, Antonio; Lowe, Rachel (2021). A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries. Nature communications, 12(1), p. 5968. Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8

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There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

UniBE Contributor:

Vicedo Cabrera, Ana Maria

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

2041-1723

Publisher:

Nature Publishing Group

Language:

English

Submitter:

Beatrice Minder Wyssmann

Date Deposited:

22 Oct 2021 13:50

Last Modified:

22 Oct 2021 14:36

Publisher DOI:

10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8

PubMed ID:

34645794

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/160272

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/160272

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