Real interest rates and demographic developments: the role of population growth and migration

Fuhrer, Lucas; Herger, Nils (2021). Real interest rates and demographic developments: the role of population growth and migration (SUERF Policy Brief 96). SUERF

[img] Text
f_03f68714dba796f8d6b268029d0e62c4_25673_suerf.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to registered users only
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (568kB)

Over recent decades, real interest rates have declined in many countries. In the academic literature, the contemporaneous reduction in population growth has been considered a possible explanation for this decline. However, empirical studies have provided rather weak results supporting a strong and stable relationship. In a recent SNB working paper (Fuhrer and Herger, 2021), we highlight the importance of differentiating between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. We show that there is a positive, statistically significant, and stable effect from birth surplus on real interest rates. Conversely, the corresponding effect of net migration is more volatile.

Item Type:

Report (Report)

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics

UniBE Contributor:

Herger, Nils

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

ISSN:

1013-1868

Series:

SUERF Policy Brief

Publisher:

SUERF

Language:

English

Submitter:

Dino Collalti

Date Deposited:

28 Dec 2021 11:12

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 15:55

Additional Information:

Reine Online-Publikation

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/161770

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/161770

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback