Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates

Tuel, Alexandre; Choi, Yeon-Woo; AlRukaibi, Duaij; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. (2021). Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates. Climate dynamics, 58(5-6), pp. 1509-1524. Springer-Verlag 10.1007/s00382-021-05975-7

[img] Text
2021_CD_Arabia_Storms.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to registered users only
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (4MB)

Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–Clapeyron law in a warmer world, under constant relative humidity. Here, based on an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate models and high-resolution regional climate simulations, we take the example of Southwest Asia, where extreme storms will intensify beyond the Clausius- Clapeyron scaling, and propose an additional novel mechanism for this region: the unique increase in atmospheric relative humidity over the Arabian Sea and associated deep northward penetration of moisture. This increase in humidity is dictated by changes in circulation over the Indian Ocean. Our proposed mechanism is consistent with the recent, most extreme storm ever observed in the region. Our findings advance a new understanding of natural climate variability in this region, with substantial implications for climate change adaptation of the region’s critical infrastructure.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Impact
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Tuel, Alexandre

Subjects:

500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

0930-7575

Publisher:

Springer-Verlag

Language:

English

Submitter:

Yannick Barton

Date Deposited:

02 Feb 2022 15:34

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 16:03

Publisher DOI:

10.1007/s00382-021-05975-7

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/164449

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/164449

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback