Kaufman, Jason; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Tam, Vicky; Song, Lihai; Coffel, Ethan; Tasian, Gregory (2022). The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios. Scientific Reports, 12(1), p. 369. Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41598-021-04251-2
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The risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997-2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered-one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085-89 (vs. 2010-2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Vicedo Cabrera, Ana Maria |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services |
ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
Publisher: |
Nature Publishing Group |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Andrea Flükiger-Flückiger |
Date Deposited: |
28 Jan 2022 20:13 |
Last Modified: |
05 Dec 2022 16:04 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-021-04251-2 |
PubMed ID: |
35013464 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/164611 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/164611 |
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