The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation.

Tuel, Alexandre; Martius, Olivia (2022). The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. iScience, 25(3), p. 103855. Elsevier 10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855

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Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

UniBE Contributor:

Tuel, Alexandre and Romppainen-Martius, Olivia

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

2589-0042

Publisher:

Elsevier

Language:

English

Submitter:

Pubmed Import

Date Deposited:

25 Feb 2022 09:17

Last Modified:

25 Feb 2022 09:24

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855

PubMed ID:

35198909

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Atmosphere modeling Atmospheric science Earth sciences Environmental event

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/166033

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/166033

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