Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human‐Induced Global Warming

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Albergel, Clément; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Perroud, Marjorie (2022). Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human‐Induced Global Warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(4) American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2021GL097031

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Much of the focus of global warming impacts on lakes have focused on changes in mean temperature. However, lakes are also highly vulnerable to thermal extremes. Such extremes occur, by definition, during lake heatwaves. Heatwaves in lakes have occurred globally in recent decades and have had severe negative impacts. However, unlike their atmospheric counterparts, it is currently unknown to what extent lake heatwaves are altered by human-induced climate change. Here, we estimate the human contribution to lake heatwaves, specifically focusing on the most severe events. We demonstrate that the occurrence probabilities of severe lake heatwaves increase substantially due to human influence. Our analysis suggests that 94% of severe heatwaves observed during the satellite data-taking period have an anthropogenic contribution. Globally, we suggest that severe heatwaves are 3 and 25- times more likely in a 1.5°C and 3.5°C warmer world, respectively, compared to a world without anthropogenic influence.

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