Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study.

Funada, Satoshi; Luo, Yan; Yoshioka, Takashi; Setoh, Kazuya; Tabara, Yasuharu; Negoro, Hiromitsu; Yoshimura, Koji; Matsuda, Fumihiko; Efthimiou, Orestis; Ogawa, Osamu; Furukawa, Toshi A; Kobayashi, Takashi; Akamatsu, Shusuke (2022). Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study. International journal of urology, 29(7), pp. 748-756. Wiley 10.1111/iju.14887

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OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop models to predict new-onset overactive bladder in 5 years using a large prospective cohort of the general population.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a longitudinal cohort study in Japan. The baseline characteristics were measured between 2008 and 2010, with follow-ups every 5 years. We included subjects without overactive bladder at baseline and with follow-up data 5 years later. Overactive bladder was assessed using the overactive bladder symptom score. Baseline characteristics (demographics, health behaviors, comorbidities, and overactive bladder symptom scores) and blood test data were included as predictors. We developed two competing prediction models for each sex based on logistic regression with penalized likelihood (LASSO). We chose the best model separately for men and women after evaluating models' performance in terms of discrimination and calibration using an internal validation via 200 bootstrap resamples and a temporal validation.

RESULTS

We analyzed 7218 participants (male: 2238, female: 4980). The median age was 60 and 55 years, and the number of new-onset overactive bladder was 223 (10.0%) and 288 (5.8%) per 5 years in males and females, respectively. The in-sample estimates for C-statistic, calibration intercept, and slope for the best performing models were 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.80), 0.28 and 1.15 for males, and 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.80), 0.20 and 1.08 for females. Internal and temporal validation gave broadly similar estimates of performance, indicating low optimism.

CONCLUSION

We developed risk prediction models for new-onset overactive bladder among men and women with good predictive ability.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

UniBE Contributor:

Efthimiou, Orestis

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

1442-2042

Publisher:

Wiley

Funders:

[4] Swiss National Science Foundation

Language:

English

Submitter:

Pubmed Import

Date Deposited:

11 Apr 2022 09:52

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 16:18

Publisher DOI:

10.1111/iju.14887

PubMed ID:

35393696

Uncontrolled Keywords:

clinical prediction rules cohort studies observational study overactive urinary bladder urination disorders

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/169183

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/169183

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