Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach

Otero, Noelia; Martius, Olivia; Allen, Sam; Bloomfield, Hannah; Schaefli, Bettina (2022). Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach. Meteorological applications, 29(5) Wiley 10.1002/met.2089

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The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Department of Mathematics and Statistics > Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Hydrology
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Impact
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Otero, Noelia; Romppainen-Martius, Olivia; Allen, Sam James Llewelyn and Schaefli, Bettina

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
900 History > 910 Geography & travel

ISSN:

1350-4827

Publisher:

Wiley

Language:

English

Submitter:

Yannick Barton

Date Deposited:

22 Sep 2022 10:34

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 16:25

Publisher DOI:

10.1002/met.2089

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/173117

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/173117

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