Exceptionally stable pre-industrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea

Onac, Bogdan P.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Ginés, Joaquín; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.; Tuccimei, Paola; Ashe, Erica L.; Fornós, Juan J.; Hoggard, Mark J.; Coulson, Sophie; Ginés, Angel; Soligo, Michele; Villa, Igor M. (2022). Exceptionally stable pre-industrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea. Science Advances, 8(26), pp. 1-8. American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.1126/sciadv.abm6185

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An accurate record of pre-industrial (pre-1900 CE) sea level is necessary to place modern global mean sea-level rise in context with respect to natural variability. We present new results from precisely dated phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) that preserve a detailed history of Late Holocene sea level. These data indicate that the largest sea-level jump occurred between 0.12 and 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 ka BP (2σ). Our results show that relative sea level stayed within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of pre-industrial levels from 2.84 ka BP to 1900 CE. This sea-level history is consistent with models of glacial isostatic adjustment that adopt a relatively weak upper mantle viscosity of ~1020 Pa s. Models indicate virtual certainty (> 0.999 probability) that rates of sea-level rise over the past 4 ka (including the 400-year jump) have not approached the global average since 1900 CE; therefore, recent sea-level rise cannot be explained by natural variability.

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