Celio, Enrico; Andriatsitohaina, R. Ntsiva N.; Llopis, Jorge C.; Gret-Regamey, Adrienne (2023). Assessing farmers’ income vulnerability to vanilla and clove export economies in northeastern Madagascar using land-use change modelling. Journal of land use science, 18(1), pp. 55-83. Taylor & Francis 10.1080/1747423X.2023.2168778
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Text (Assessing farmers’ income vulnerability to vanilla and clove export economies in northeastern Madagascar using land-use change modelling)
Celio_et-al_2023_Assessing_farmers_income_vulnerability_to_vanilla_and_clove_export_economies_in_northeastern_Madagascar_using_land_use_change_modelling.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (9MB) | Preview |
Using a participatory Bayesian network-based land-use decision model, we simulate future land-use patterns under various scenarios, including changes in vanilla and clove market prices as well as changes in irrigation water availability and potential harvest failures. Findings indicate that specifically the vanilla value chain (compared to the clove value chain) has a major influence on farmers income vulnerability. Abandoning vanilla cultivation may lead to poverty once income from vanilla reaches a certain threshold. By comparing farmer’s income gains from cash crop production with costs for buying rice to cover basic needs, we show that while focusing on cash crop production is more lucrative, it is, however, highly risky with regard to climate change, price volatility and possible crop thefts. Such lock-in-effects in cash crops, like the vanilla ones in northeastern Madagascar, are essential to be considered, when designing policies for a more sustainable development of resource-rich but poverty-prone regions.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
10 Strategic Research Centers > Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Llopis, Jorge Claudio (B) |
ISSN: |
1747-4248 |
Publisher: |
Taylor & Francis |
Projects: |
[1047] Managing Telecoupled Landscapes for Sustainable Provision of Ecosystem Services and Poeverty Alleviation
[803] Cluster: Land Resources |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Melchior Peter Nussbaumer |
Date Deposited: |
07 Mar 2023 08:10 |
Last Modified: |
26 Aug 2024 15:40 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1080/1747423X.2023.2168778 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/179575 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/179575 |
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