Heidemeyer, Kristine; Cazzaniga, Simone; Dondi, Letizia; Ronconi, Giulia; Pedrini, Antonella; Bellatreccia, Andrea; Zhong, Yichen; Martini, Nello; Naldi, Luigi (2023). Variables associated with joint involvement and development of a prediction rule for arthritis in psoriasis patients. An analysis of the Italian PsoReal database. Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 89(1), pp. 53-61. Elsevier 10.1016/j.jaad.2023.02.059
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BACKGROUND
Limited data exist to predict the development of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in psoriasis (PsO) patients OBJECTIVE: To analyze factors associated with incident PsA in PsO patients, and to develop a predictive algorithm for progression to arthritis using a full set of variables and a restricted one applicable to administrative data.
METHODS
Cohort study within the PsoReal registry in Italy. Multivariable generalized linear models were used to assess factors associated with PsA and to derive a predictive model.
RESULTS
Among 8895 patients, 226 PsA cases were identified (incidence 1.9 per 100 patient-years). Independent predictors in the full model were: female sex, age 40-59 years, BMI≥25, chronic-plaque PsO features, presence of palmoplantar pustulosis, hospitalization for PsO in the last 5 years, and previous use of systemic PsO therapy, area under the curve of Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) = 0.74. Female sex, age 40-59 years, hospitalization for PsO, previous use of systemic PsO therapy were independent predictors in the restricted model, AUC-ROC = 0.72.
LIMITATIONS
Lack of other potential predictors for PsA.
CONCLUSION
Our models could be used by clinicians and health authorities when planning intervention and population surveillance. Future studies should confirm our models using larger datasets and additional variables.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Dermatology, Urology, Rheumatology, Nephrology, Osteoporosis (DURN) > Clinic of Dermatology |
UniBE Contributor: |
Heidemeyer, Kristine, Cazzaniga, Simone |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health |
ISSN: |
0190-9622 |
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Pubmed Import |
Date Deposited: |
27 Mar 2023 14:38 |
Last Modified: |
24 Mar 2024 00:25 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1016/j.jaad.2023.02.059 |
PubMed ID: |
36965671 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
prediction predictive model psoriasis psoriatic arthritis |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/180677 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/180677 |
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