Lindgren, E; Krzywicka, K; de Winter, M A; Sánchez van Kammen, M; Heldner, M R; Hiltunen, S; Aguiar de Sousa, D; Mansour, M; Canhão, P; Ekizoglu, E; Rodrigues, M; Silva, E M; Garcia-Esperon, C; Arnao, V; Aridon, P; Simaan, N; Silvis, S M; Zuurbier, S M; Scutelnic, A; Sezgin, M; ... (2023). A scoring tool to predict mortality and dependency after cerebral venous thrombosis. European journal of neurology, 30(8), pp. 2305-2314. Wiley 10.1111/ene.15844
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Euro_J_of_Neurology_-_2023_-_Lindgren_-_A_scoring_tool_to_predict_mortality_and_dependency_after_cerebral_venous_thrombosis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to registered users only until 10 May 2024. Available under License Publisher holds Copyright. Download (675kB) | Request a copy |
BACKGROUND
We developed a prognostic score to predict dependency and death after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) to identify patients for targeted therapy in future clinical trials..
METHODS
We used data from the International CVT Consortium. We excluded patients with pre-existent functional dependency. We used logistic regression to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 3-6) at 6 months and Cox regression to predict 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. Potential predictors derived from previous studies were selected with backward stepwise selection. Coefficients were shrunken using Ridge regression to adjust for optimism in internal validation.
RESULTS
Of 1454 patients with CVT, the cumulative number of deaths was 44 (3%) and 70 (5%) for 30 days and 1 year, respectively. Of 1126 patients evaluated regarding functional outcome, 137 (12%) were dependent or dead at 6 months. From the retained predictors for both models, we derived the SI2 NCAL2 C score utilizing the following components: absence of female Sex-specific risk factor, Intracerebral hemorrhage, Infection of the central nervous system, Neurologic focal deficits, Coma, Age, lower Level of hemoglobin (g/L), higher Level of glucose (mmol/L) at admission, and Cancer. C-statistics were 0.80 (95%CI 0.75-0.84), 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.88) and 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.88) for the poor outcome, 30 days and 1 year mortality model, respectively. Calibration plots indicated good model fit between predicted and observed values. The SI2 NCAL2 C score calculator is freely available at www.cerebralvenousthrombosis.com.
CONCLUSIONS
The SI2 NCAL2 C score shows adequate performance for estimating individual risk of mortality and dependency after CVT but external validation of the score is warranted.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
|---|---|
Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Head Organs and Neurology (DKNS) > Clinic of Neurology 04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > BioMedical Research (DBMR) > DCR Unit Sahli Building > Forschungsgruppe Neurologie |
UniBE Contributor: |
Heldner, Mirjam Rachel, Scutelnic, Adrian, Arnold, Marcel |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services |
ISSN: |
1468-1331 |
Publisher: |
Wiley |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Pubmed Import |
Date Deposited: |
11 May 2023 16:01 |
Last Modified: |
11 Jan 2024 10:38 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1111/ene.15844 |
PubMed ID: |
37165521 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
cerebral venous thrombosis dependency follow-up long-term outcome mortality |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/182496 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/182496 |
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