Real Interest Rates and Population Growth across Generations

Fuhrer, Lucas; Herger, Nils (2023). Real Interest Rates and Population Growth across Generations (In Press). Journal of money, credit and banking Wiley-Blackwell 10.1111/jmcb.13094

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This paper empirically examines the correlation between population growth and real interest rates. Although this correlation is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships across generations. Accordingly, key population trends appear often only across decades, if not centuries, worth of data. To capture these trends, we distinguish between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, we find robust evidence that the birth surplus is significantly correlated with the real interest rate.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics

UniBE Contributor:

Herger, Nils

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

ISSN:

0022-2879

Publisher:

Wiley-Blackwell

Language:

English

Submitter:

Julia Alexandra Schlosser

Date Deposited:

20 Oct 2023 15:18

Last Modified:

20 Oct 2023 17:17

Publisher DOI:

10.1111/jmcb.13094

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/187327

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/187327

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