Eunice Lo, Y T; Mitchell, Dann M; Buzan, Jonathan R; Zscheischler, Jakob; Schneider, Rochelle; Mistry, Malcolm N; Kyselý, Jan; Lavigne, Éric; da Silva, Susana Pereira; Royé, Dominic; Urban, Aleš; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M (2023). Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country. International journal of climatology, 43(12), pp. 5553-5568. Wiley 10.1002/joc.8160
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Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM) 08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics 10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Buzan, Jonathan Robert, Vicedo Cabrera, Ana Maria |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services 500 Science > 530 Physics 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology |
ISSN: |
0899-8418 |
Publisher: |
Wiley |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Pubmed Import |
Date Deposited: |
25 Oct 2023 10:32 |
Last Modified: |
26 Mar 2024 18:24 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1002/joc.8160 |
PubMed ID: |
37874919 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
climate and health dry heat heat stress heat-related mortality humid heat |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/187428 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/187428 |
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