Kadelka, Sarah; Bouman, Judith A; Ashcroft, Peter; Regoes, Roland R (2024). Correcting for Antibody Waning in Cumulative Incidence Estimation from Sequential Serosurveys. American journal of epidemiology, 193(5), pp. 777-786. Oxford University Press 10.1093/aje/kwad226
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Serosurveys are a widely used tool to estimate the cumulative incidence, i.e. the fraction of a population that have been infected by a given pathogen. These surveys rely on serological assays that measure the level of pathogen-specific antibodies. Because antibody levels are waning, the fraction of previously infected individuals that have sero-reverted increases with time past infection. To avoid underestimating the true cumulative incidence, it is therefore essential to correct for waning antibody levels. We present an empirically-supported approach for sero-reversion correction in cumulative incidence estimation when sequential serosurveys are conducted in the context of a newly emerging infectious disease. The correction is based on the observed dynamics of antibody titers in sero-positive cases and validated using several in silico test scenarios. Furthermore, through this approach we revise a previous cumulative incidence estimate, which relies on the assumption of an exponentially-declining probability of sero-reversion over time, of SARS-CoV-2 of 76% in Manaus, Brazil, by October 2020 to 47.6% (43.5% - 53.5%). This estimate has implications e.g. for the proximity to herd immunity in Manaus in late 2020.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Bouman, Judith Aveline |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services |
ISSN: |
0002-9262 |
Publisher: |
Oxford University Press |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Pubmed Import |
Date Deposited: |
29 Nov 2023 09:29 |
Last Modified: |
08 May 2024 02:01 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1093/aje/kwad226 |
PubMed ID: |
38012125 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence infectious disease serosurveys |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/189487 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/189487 |
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