Forecasting Global Temperatures by Exploiting Cointegration with Radiative Forcing’

Benati, Luca (2023). Forecasting Global Temperatures by Exploiting Cointegration with Radiative Forcing’ (Discussion papers 23-08).

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I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end
of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative
Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario,
the most favorable median forecast predicts the land temperature anomaly to
reach 5.6 Celsius degrees in 2100. Forecasts conditional on alternative paths for
the JRF show that, given the extent of uncertainty, bringing climate change
under control will require to bring the JRF back to the level reached in the early
years of the XXI century. From a methodological point of view, my evidence
suggests that previous cointegration-based studies of climate change suffer from
model mis-specification

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