Caillaud, Cécile; Somot, Samuel; Douville, Hervé; Alias, Antoinette; Bastin, Sophie; Brienen, Susanne; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Dobler, Andreas; Feldmann, Hendrik; Frisius, Thomas; Goergen, Klaus; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; Mercogliano, Paola; Pichelli, Emanuela; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tölle, Merja H.; de Vries, Hylke (2024). Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(6) American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2023GL105143
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Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
|---|---|
Division/Institute: |
10 Strategic Research Centers > Wyss Academy for Nature > Climate Change Scenarios (CCSN) 10 Strategic Research Centers > Wyss Academy for Nature 08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics 10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) |
UniBE Contributor: |
Demory, Marie-Estelle |
Subjects: |
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology |
ISSN: |
0094-8276 |
Publisher: |
American Geophysical Union |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Marie-Estelle Demory |
Date Deposited: |
02 Apr 2024 16:02 |
Last Modified: |
02 Apr 2024 16:02 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1029/2023GL105143 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/194897 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/194897 |
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