Trends in mortality in people with HIV from 1999 to 2020: a multi-cohort collaboration.

Tusch, Erich; Ryom, Lene; Pelchen-Matthews, Annegret; Mocroft, Amanda; Elbirt, Daniel; Oprea, Cristiana; Günthard, Huldrych F; Staehelin, Cornelia; Zangerle, Robert; Suarez, Isabelle; Vehreschild, Jörg Janne; Wit, Ferdinand; Menozzi, Marianna; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Spagnuolo, Vincenzo; Pradier, Christian; Carlander, Christina; Suanzes, Paula; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Carr, Andrew; ... (2024). Trends in mortality in people with HIV from 1999 to 2020: a multi-cohort collaboration. (In Press). Clinical infectious diseases Oxford University Press 10.1093/cid/ciae228

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BACKGROUND

Mortality among people with HIV declined with the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy. We investigated trends over time in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with HIV from 1999-2020.

METHODS

Data were collected from the D:A:D cohort from 1999 through January 2015 and RESPOND from October 2017 through 2020. Age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, classified using Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe), were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess mortality trends over time.

RESULTS

Among 55716 participants followed for a median of 6 years (IQR 3-11), 5263 participants died (crude mortality rate [MR] 13.7/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 13.4-14.1). Changing patterns of mortality were observed with AIDS as the most common cause of death between 1999- 2009 (n = 952, MR 4.2/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 4.0-4.5) and non-AIDS defining malignancy (NADM) from 2010 -2020 (n = 444, MR 2.8/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 2.5-3.1). In multivariable analysis, all-cause mortality declined over time (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 0.97 per year; 95%CI 0.96, 0.98), mostly from 1999 through 2010 (aMRR 0.96 per year; 95%CI 0.95-0.97), and with no decline shown from 2011 through 2020 (aMRR 1·00 per year; 95%CI 0·96-1·05). Mortality due all known causes except NADM also declined over the entire follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

Mortality among people with HIV in the D:A:D and/or RESPOND cohorts decreased between 1999 and 2009 and was stable over the period from 2010 through 2020. The decline in mortality rates was not fully explained by improvements in immunologic-virologic status or other risk factors.

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