Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

Wen, Bo; Wu, Yao; Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; ... (2024). Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study. Environment International, 187, p. 108712. Elsevier 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

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BACKGROUND

Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.

METHODS

We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.

RESULTS

Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

UniBE Contributor:

Vicedo Cabrera, Ana Maria

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

0160-4120

Publisher:

Elsevier

Language:

English

Submitter:

Pubmed Import

Date Deposited:

08 May 2024 11:49

Last Modified:

19 Jun 2024 09:29

Publisher DOI:

10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

PubMed ID:

38714028

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Inter-day Intra-day Mortality Temperature variability

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/196611

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/196611

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