Feldmann, Monika; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Martius, Olivia (1 March 2024). Investigating the predictability link between heatwaves and severe convective outbreaks in Europe (Unpublished). In: 4th European Hail Workshop. Karslruhe. 05-07.03.2024.
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EHW2024_Abstract_Investigating_the_predictability_link_between_heatwaves_and_severe_convective_outbreaks_in_Europe.pdf - Other Available under License BORIS Standard License. Download (52kB) | Preview |
Recent summers in Europe were accompanied by significant convective storm outbreaks with widespread large hail, flash floods and severe wind phenomena. Particularly severe outbreaks have occurred at the breaking point of multi-day heatwaves, leading to considerable compound hazards from heat and drought meeting severe thunderstorms. The decay of blockings and heatwaves remains one of the largest forecast uncertainties and shows ties to the onset of widespread convection. Utilizing reanalysis data, we investigate the link between blocking patterns, heat anomalies and the decay of blockings with respect to severe convective environments. This analysis reveals that severe thunderstorm environments across Europe are preceded by multi-day heat anomalies and a slow-moving upper-level wave pattern. With the predictability of blockings and heatwaves extending to several weeks, improved understanding of their evolution and following convective outbreaks is imperative to advance the predictive skill of severe convection. Advancing the understanding of links between large-scale processes and meso-scale convective clusters sheds light on the reasons for current limits in forecasting convective outbreaks and highlights possible windows of forecast opportunity, where predictability can be extended.
Item Type: |
Conference or Workshop Item (Abstract) |
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Division/Institute: |
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) > MobiLab 08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Impact 10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) 08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography 08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography |
UniBE Contributor: |
Feldmann, Monika, Romppainen-Martius, Olivia |
Subjects: |
000 Computer science, knowledge & systems 500 Science 500 Science > 530 Physics 900 History > 910 Geography & travel |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Lara Maude Zinkl |
Date Deposited: |
22 May 2024 15:21 |
Last Modified: |
22 May 2024 15:21 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/196986 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/196986 |
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