Comparisons of interglacial vegetation responses to climate variability between the Massif Central, France, and the Balkan Peninsula since 423 ka

Schläfli, Patrick; Gobet, Erika; Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis de; Reille, Maurice; Vogel, Hendrik; Schlunegger, Fritz; Tinner, Willy (2024). Comparisons of interglacial vegetation responses to climate variability between the Massif Central, France, and the Balkan Peninsula since 423 ka. Quaternary science reviews, 334 Elsevier 10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108715

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Palynological long sequences offer a unique possibility to study the effect of pronounced climate change on vegetation dynamics over several glacial-interglacial cycles. Such long sequences are rare, especially outside of the Mediterranean realm. Additionally, they often lack robust chronologies, which are a precondition for com- parisons across records and proxies. In this study we present a refined chronology of the Velay pollen sequence (0–423 ka) from south-central France by tuning it to the recently published Lake Ohrid pollen sequence from the southern Balkans, which itself has a vegetation-independent, numerical chronology. Furthermore, we use ordi- nation techniques in combination with independent palaeo-temperature proxies and seasonality as explanatory variables for both sites. This allows us to infer climatic responses of interglacial vegetation over a broad ecological gradient, i.e., from a cool-temperate to a submediterranean site. Our analysis shows that temperature is a significant determinant for interglacial vegetation composition at both sites but explains slightly more variance at cool-temperate Velay compared to submediterranean Lake Ohrid, where precessional-driven mois- ture availability might have had a greater influence. Temperate oceanic taxa such as Abies and Taxus were most affected by comparably cool or warm interglacials at Velay, whereas at Lake Ohrid, the same accounts for Mediterranean taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. cerris, or Ostrya/Carpinus orientalis. Responses of single taxa and vegetation groups to seasonality changes over the last five interglacials suggest that species-specific niche preferences have remained stable since 423 ka. Additionally, we suggest that unless a future climate exceeds the MIS 5e anomaly of c. +1.3 ◦C (if compared to the Holocene), evergreen Mediterranean taxa such as Quercus ilex will not expand into temperate biomes north of the Alps. However, even temperature rises below +1.3 ◦C will cause a restructuring of the current vegetation in both areas.

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