Stapley, Jacob N; Hamley, Jonathan I. D.; Walker, Martin; Dixon, Matthew A; Colebunders, Robert; Basáñez, Maria-Gloria (2024). Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence. Nature Communications, 15(1), p. 6275. Springer Nature 10.1038/s41467-024-50582-9
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Retrospective cohort studies in Cameroon found an association between Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial load in childhood (measured in 1991-1993) and risk of developing epilepsy later in life (measured in 2017). We parameterised and integrated this relationship (across children aged 3-15 years) into the previously published, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, for Simulium damnosum sensu lato-transmitted onchocerciasis. We simulated 19 years (1998-2017) of annual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) reflecting coverage in the study area, and modelled epilepsy prevalence and incidence. Scenario-based simulations of 25 years of (annual and biannual) MDA in hyper- and holoendemic settings, with 65% and 80% therapeutic coverage, were also conducted. EPIONCHO-IBM predicted 7.6% epilepsy prevalence (compared to 8.2% in the Cameroon study) and incidence of 317 cases/100,000 person-years (compared to 350). In hyperendemic areas, 25 years of biannual MDA (80% coverage) eliminated onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) and protected untreated under-fives from its development. Strengthening onchocerciasis programmes, implementing alternative strategies, and evaluating treatment for under-fives and school-age children are crucial to prevent OAE in highly-endemic settings.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Gastro-intestinal, Liver and Lung Disorders (DMLL) > Clinic of Visceral Surgery and Medicine > Visceral Surgery 04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Gastro-intestinal, Liver and Lung Disorders (DMLL) > Clinic of Visceral Surgery and Medicine |
UniBE Contributor: |
Hamley, Jonathan Ian Douglas |
Subjects: |
600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health |
ISSN: |
2041-1723 |
Publisher: |
Springer Nature |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Pubmed Import |
Date Deposited: |
29 Jul 2024 15:50 |
Last Modified: |
29 Jul 2024 15:58 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1038/s41467-024-50582-9 |
PubMed ID: |
39054334 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/199299 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/199299 |
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