White, Gary C.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Barker, Richard J.
(2009).
*
Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data.
*
In:
Thomson, David L; Cooch, Evan G; Conroy, Michael J
(eds.)
Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics: Vol. 3 (pp. 1119-1127).
Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer
10.1007/978-0-387-78151-8_53

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

## Item Type: |
Book Section (Book Chapter) |
---|---|

## Division/Institute: |
08 Faculty of Science > Department of Biology > Institute of Ecology and Evolution (IEE) > Conservation Biology |

## ISSN: |
1860-949X |

## ISBN: |
978-0-387-78151-8 |

## Series: |
Environmental and Ecological Statistics |

## Publisher: |
Springer |

## Language: |
English |

## Submitter: |
Factscience Import |

## Date Deposited: |
04 Oct 2013 15:21 |

## Last Modified: |
04 Apr 2014 00:15 |

## Publisher DOI: |
10.1007/978-0-387-78151-8_53 |

## Web of Science ID: |
000268029000050 |

## URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/36749 (FactScience: 206000) |