Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E. V.; Muthers, Stefan; Peter, T.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Arfeuille, Florian Xavier; Beer, J.; Shapiro, A. I.; Raible, Christoph; Steinhilber, F.; Schmutz, W. K. (2013). Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(16), pp. 4420-4425. Wiley 10.1002/grl.50806

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We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)


08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Climatology
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute

Graduate School:

Graduate School of Climate Sciences

UniBE Contributor:

Muthers, Stefan, Brönnimann, Stefan, Arfeuille, Florian Xavier, Raible, Christoph


500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
900 History > 910 Geography & travel








Monika Wälti-Stampfli

Date Deposited:

15 Jan 2014 10:57

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 14:27

Publisher DOI:


Uncontrolled Keywords:

grand solar minimum; global warming; 21st century; total ozone column; erythemal




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