Tomassini, Lorenzo; Knutti, Reto; Plattner, GianKasper; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E. (2010). Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to nonintervention scenarios. Climatic change, 103(34), pp. 399422. Dordrecht: Springer 10.1007/s1058400997633

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Probabilistic climate projections based on two SRES scenarios, an IMAGE reference scenario and five IMAGE mitigation scenarios (all of them multigas scenarios) using the Bern2.5D climate model are calculated. Probability distributions of climate model parameters that are constrained by observations are employed as input for the climate model. The sensitivity of the resulting distributions with respect to prior assumptions on climate sensitivity is then assessed. Due to system inertia, prior assumptions on climate sensitivity play a minor role in the case of temperature projections for the first half of the 21st century, but these assumptions have a considerable influence on the distributions of the projected temperature increase in the year 2100. Upper and lower probabilities for exceeding 2°C by the year 2100 are calculated for the different scenarios. Only the most stringent mitigation measures lead to low probabilities for exceeding the 2°C threshold. This finding is robust with respect to our prior assumptions on climate sensitivity. Further, probability distributions of total presentvalue damages over the period 2000–2100 for the different scenarios are calculated assuming a wide range of damage cost functions, and the sensitivity of these distributions with respect to the assumed discount rate is investigated. Absolute values of damage costs depend heavily on the chosen damage cost function and discount rate. Nevertheless, some robust conclusions are possible.
Item Type: 
Journal Article (Original Article) 

Division/Institute: 
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute 08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics 
UniBE Contributor: 
Plattner, GianKasper, Stocker, Thomas 
ISSN: 
01650009 
Publisher: 
Springer 
Language: 
English 
Submitter: 
Factscience Import 
Date Deposited: 
04 Oct 2013 14:16 
Last Modified: 
05 Dec 2022 14:04 
Publisher DOI: 
10.1007/s1058400997633 
Web of Science ID: 
000285069300005 
BORIS DOI: 
10.48350/4622 
URI: 
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/4622 (FactScience: 209123) 