Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Grieger, Jens; Schuster, Mareike; Akperov, Mirseid G.; Bardin, Mikhail Yu.; Feng, Yang; Gulev, Sergey; Inatsu, Masaru; Keay, Kevin; Kew, Sarah F.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Lionello, Piero; Mokhov, Igor I.; Neu, Urs; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Raible, Christoph; Reale, Marco; Rudeva, Irina; Simmonds, Ian; ... (2013). Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 22(1), pp. 61-68. Borntraeger 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420

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For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute

UniBE Contributor:

Raible, Christoph

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

0941-2948

Publisher:

Borntraeger

Language:

English

Submitter:

Doris Rätz

Date Deposited:

18 Sep 2014 09:49

Last Modified:

20 Dec 2014 21:36

Publisher DOI:

10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.47712

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/47712

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